One thing I really want for my picks column is a corporate sponsor, so why not pick a fictional corporation who’s building burns to the ground at the end of the movie. By the way, that would be an apt metaphor for my NFL picks, which after a really good start, has really gone up in flames over the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, I went 4-10, and last week, I went 5-8. For the season, I am now 50-47. I have become the New York Giants of NFL prognostication.
One more thing: Bill Simmons, in his NFL picks column last week, said this about his approach to picking NFL games:
I can’t tell you how happy (his 58-32 record against the spread) made me. I spend more time on this column than you can possibly imagine. It takes me three-and-a-half days to write. I watch every minute of football on Sunday and Monday. I scour newspapers and TV shows searching for tidbits. I spend two full days writing material, making picks and flipping games around every which way. Three years ago, I even turned my office into a man cave and added four televisions just so I could watch as much football as possible.
Yikes! Conversely, I probably spend all of a couple of hours picking games. I get on the Internet, look at the lines, figure out if the underdog can beat the spread, comment on it, and move on. Oh, and I was one game better than the Sports Guy. He went 4-9 in his picks. Ha! You’re thinking too much, son! If you want to see that column picked apart, go here. It is great.
Kansas City at Jacksonville (-6.5)
Jacksonville isn’t one of those teams that is worth betting on. You never know if they’re going to win, or crap the bed altogether. They followed up a close loss to the Colts on opening weekend with a dud against the Cardinals. After two consecutive wins agains division foes, they lay a 41-0 egg in Seattle, barely beat the then winless Rams, and laid another egg in Nashville last week.
At some point, Jacksonville will win impressively. Why not this week? Of course, this means another egg is coming.
Baltimore (-2.5) at Cincinnati
Both teams are coming off their most impressive wins of the season. Cincinnati absolutely dominated the Bears 45-10 two weeks ago, and Baltimore beat the undefeated Broncos 30-6 a week ago.
Last week was the first time all season that the Ravens defense looked like the Ravens defense we all know and love, and if it weren’t for some untimely penalties and defensive mistakes, their first match up with the Bengals might have been a bit different. I like the Ravens.
Houston at Indianapolis (-9.5)
Both teams are really good offensively. Houston has scored at least 21 in every game expect the opener. I think they have enough offense to stay within 9.5 of the Colts.
Washington at Atlanta (-11.5)
Say what you will about the Skins, but they never really get blown out. Their worst margin of defeat has been 10, last week against the Eagles. I’ll go with the Redskins to cover.
Green Bay (-9.5) at Tampa Bay
One thing the Packers can do is beat bad teams badly. They beat the Rams by 21, the Lions by 26, and the Browns by 28. On top of this, Tampa is planning on starting rookie Josh Freeman. The Packers should roll.
Arizona at Chicago (-3)
My theory on the Bears played out last week, as they beat the Browns 30-6 at home. They continue their home streak this week. Yes, the Cardinals are unbeaten away from Phoenix, but those wins are against Seattle, Jacksonville, and the suddenly not so good Giants.
Miami at New England (-12)
I’m not buying the Patriots yet. Sure, they’re the number one team, according to Football Outsiders, and they have a +100 point differential, albeit inflated by dominating games against the Titans and Buccaneers. I don’t think they’re 12 points better than Miami.
Carolina at New Orleans (-14.5)
I wonder if the Panthers have figured out that the less often they throw the football, the better they are. The Saints are just an average run defense, giving up 4.4 yards a carry and 102 yards a game. I think this will be enough to keep them within 2 touchdowns.
Detroit at Seattle (-10.5)
Detroit is just bad. I think Seattle will cover.
Tennessee at San Francisco (-6)
Since I’m irrationally poking at Simmons this week (He doesn’t read blogs, so he’ll never see this!), he wrote this about Jeff Fisher in that picks column:
The truth is, the reason I’m doing (playing Vince Young) is because I thought it would deflect attention from the fact that I’ve only had six winning seasons in 16 years — but everyone still seems to think I’m a really good coach and none of this is my fault.
Because that is one of the most horribly misleading statements* I’ve read today, I’m picking the Titans.
*The Titans were 8-8 in 1996, 1997, and 1998. In ‘96 they were playing their last year in Houston; they were dead team walking. In ‘97, they played their home games 200 miles from Nashville, where they practiced, so they basically played 16 road games. In ‘98, they played their home games at Dudley Field, the home turf of the Vanderbilt Commodores. Despite playing in a stadium holding 40,000, they still had games blacked out.
Also, they went 8-8 in 2006, a year in which they started 0-5 playing a rookie quarterback, someone named Vince Young. That year, they beat the Giants and Colts, who only went on to win the Super Bowl.
You count those four seasons, that 10 non-losing seasons in 16 years. That’s not nearly as bad as Mr. Simmons leads you to believe.
San Diego at Giants (-4)
Normally, it would be stupid to pick a Norv Turner team to beat a good football team. However, their pass offense is really good, and the Giants pass defense has been really bad. So, I’m picking the Chargers.
Dallas at Philadelphia (-4)
This game really is a toss up. I’ll pick the Cowboys. It looks like they’ve found an explosive weapon on the outside, and DeMarcus Ware is in beast mode, with 5 sacks in the last four games.
Pittsburgh at Denver
Troy Polamalu is back and healthy, Rashard Mendenhall is now the feature back in Pittsburgh, and Baltimore exposed some flaws in Denver’s offense, namely jump their short routes. I like Pittsburgh on the road here.
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